Initial Mock Draft

I love the NFL draft. I realize it may be one of the most overrated events in sports today. Every year you have your typical players in the draft. You have your "sure things", meaning they're solid, productive players but might have already peaked. You're going to have your "work-out warriors" who put up amazing combine numbers and it never translates to NFL talent, just look at Vernon Gholston and Mike Mamula. You have your sleepers, busts, character issues and injury risks that cause guys to move up and down all over draft boards without actually playing a game for 4 months.

All the work that goes into scouting and watching film and everyone can still get it wrong on a guy. For me and a few friends we get the chance to compare ourselves to the experts, we didn't do so well last year. We have limited resources compared to the experts so it's more of a guessing game for us. It gives us something to talk and argue about which we love to do.

It also, to me, really kicks off the new season. For most fans it brings hope to the new season. It also allows the fans to get a sense on what direction their favorite team is going. Are they thinking its time to rebuild? Are they adding a key player to get them into the playoffs? Or maybe a big time weapon to get them to a Super Bowl? While it is overrated, it's still one of my favorite sports events every year.

So, after all that, lets move on to my initial mock draft. For this one I'm just going to do picks 1 through 10. This is what I think the teams should do, not will do.

Due to a random pick of number 1 (Denver) or number 2 (Jacksonville) by a friend of mine Jacksonville gets the 10th pick. Thanks Ben.

1. St. Louis Rams- Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska

I think Suh is the most dominate player in the draft this year and should be the first player taken. The Rams have a TON of needs and DT is one of them but they need a QB over anything else. The Rams should attempt to trade back 3 or 4 picks and take the best QB in the draft. This is the perfect draft to do that in. Plenty of teams would love to have the explosive Suh line up for them and they don't have to pay him like you would most first round picks due to his position. The Rams could slide back, get their QB and maybe another pick, and not have to pay him first overall pick money. If they can't get the trade they like, then take the best player in the draft.

2. Detroit Lions- Russel Okung, OT Oklahoma State

Lions did a nice job last year in the draft getting their franchise QB, a nice target for him to throw to, and a very solid safety. Now they need to get someone to protect Stafford. Okung is a beast at 6-5, 300 pounds. He's been a starter one of the better rushing teams in college since his true freshmen year. The Lions cannot wait another round or another year to try and land a top notch left tackle to protect their biggest investment. This class is deep enough in defensive lineman where they could wait till the second round to try an land a impact player. Stafford got hurt this year due to a lack of protection, the Lions better try and fix it with this pick.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma

So far this is looking like a Big 12 All-American team. Because of how dominate Suh was this year McCoy has been completley over-looked this year. He's a bit smaller then most defensive tackles (6-4, 285 pounds) but he more then makes up for that with his quickness and speed. He plays very similar to another ex-Sooner DT, Tommie Harris. Tampa had one of the worst run defenses last year and McCoy would be a great start to help re-build that defensive line. Tampa might also be a team who would look to trade up to get Suh.

4. Washington Redskins- Jimmy Clausen, QB Notre Dame

I really have no idea with this pick. With Shanahan in place he might look to land his future franchise QB with this pick. I think this might be another spot we could see a trade. Right now I have Clausen going here. I think the Redskins need to look to upgrade at the QB position. I think Campbell has not really had the best coaching in his career to grow but he has not shown any form of consistency to be counted on in the future. Clausen right now I think is the best QB prospect with Bradford right on his heels. Clausen showed a lot of toughness this year fighting back in a lot of games. He has a strong arm and showed to be more accurate this year along with better decision making. His long balls need some work though. He generally just tossed the ball up and allowed either Floyd or Tate to go up and get it.

5. Kansas City Chiefs- Eric Berry, S Tennessee

In some opinions Berry is the best player in this draft and I have a tough time arguing. He's been compared to Ed Reed for his play making ability. Berry also does a great job around the line of scrimmage stopping the run and disrupting the passing game. He's the type of player who could come in on day one and start making an impact. The Chiefs play out of the 3-4 and that would allow Berry more freedom to play near the line or be a ball hawk.

6. Seattle Seahawks- Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma

As much as I like Hasselback I think his best days are clearly behind him. He's in the twilight of his career and might just have a couple more years in him. Bradford would have been the first overall pick had he come out last year and now he sits at number 6, at least in this Draft. I would not be surprised to see him establish himself as the best QB in this draft once he starts throwing again and showing he's healthy. Until I see that I have him as the second best QB in the draft. He's extremely efficient and very accurate. He moves better then most give him credit for but still not that well. The one thing I really wanted to see from him this year was how he handles pressure. I didn't get the chance to see that due to his shoulder injury and I still see that as his biggest question mark.

7. Cleveland Browns- Rolando McClain, ILB Alabama

McClain would be a very good fit for the Browns. He's a smart player who relies on his great instincts. He's a very aggressive player and moves extremely well. He also comes from a pro-style 3-4 defense so there shouldn't be a hard transition period for him. He can come in and start from day one. McClain is a very solid tackler and can make a lot of plays in the run game. Thanks to his instincts he's not a guy who should be a liability in the passing game and could disrupt those underneath routes most teams love to use.

8. Oakland Raiders- Trent Williams, OT Oklahoma

Why won't this pick happen? Because Williams doesn't run a good 40 or jump through the roof, he's just a very good player. I actually think the Raiders will take Derrick Morgan or Taylor Mays here because of their athletic ability and that's what the Raiders do. Raiders couldn't protect their QB's and couldn't open up any holes for their running backs. Williams is a solid player and can protect well in the passing game. and is even better in the running game. He has plenty of experience where he should be able to start somewhere on the line right away.

9. Buffalo Bills- Anthony Davis, OT Rutgers

The Bills would love to see either Bradford or Clausen drop to them here. In this scenario that doesn't happen so they'll settle for one of the better tackle prospects to come out this year. Davis is very good in both the passing game and the running game and has a lot of strength. The one downfall I've heard on Davis is he can disappear at times and playing tackle in the NFL that could cost you your starting QB. Davis would be a nice addition to a team that needs to rebuild it's offensive line.

10. Jacksonville- Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma State

I'm a sucker for big time WR's and Bryant is just that. He is very physical and a terrific athlete and should provide Jacksonville with a much needed weapon in the passing game. Sims-Walker was a nice surprise this year but is can't be the only target in the passing game. Holt is at the end or very near it in his great career. Bryant is a deep threat thanks to his great size and speed and is also tough enough to go over the middle. Once inside the red zone his leaping ability makes him almost impossible to defend. Jacksonville will not only benefit in the passing game thanks to this pick but it should open up Jones-Drew more without having 8 guys in the box most of the time.

So there you have it, my initial top 10. The East/West Shrine and Senior Bowl are still to be played and should a good measuring stick for a lot of players. After that we'll have the combine, college days, and personal work-outs to help determine how the draft will turn out. I'm sure once April rolls around one or two highly regarded prospects will fall well out of the first round and just as many guys no one knows will work their way into the first round.

Manning the MVP?????

I woke up this morning to a text message from ESPN alerts (which is one of the coolest things ever, you should sign up for it if you haven't already) saying that Peyton Manning has won his record 4th MVP. Before I could even close my phone I already knew what I was going to write about on here.

Manning had an MVP like season and is deserving of the honor, but not this year. He was not the MVP in football this year. I like Manning, I always have. Well that's not completely true, I was one of the guys who thought Leaf would be the better player. Once I realized how wrong I was I became a fan of Manning. I've always defended Manning in the Brady vs Manning debate but this time I just can't defend him.

Let's get his stats this year out of the way first. Manning had a QB rating of 99.9 (6th in the league), tossed 33 TD's (3rd in the league), 68.8% percentage (2nd in the league), and threw for 4,500 yards (2nd in the league). He definitely put up MVP type numbers compared to the rest of the league this year but he didn't lead the league in any major category (except wins and I will get to that). Plus he tossed 16 INT's, more then Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, and Joe Flacco to name a few. He also was 10th in the league for yards per attempt so it's not like everything he threw was a big play. Manning's numbers were good but you can easily make the argument, on stats alone, that there are other players who could have won the MVP this year just from the QB position.

So the big argument for Manning winning the award is the fact that he's the best player on the best team this year. He lead the Colts to 14 wins this year and without him they're probably not even a playoff team but there's a lot of guys in the league who are just as important to their team as Manning. No one can tell me that the Saints are nearly as good without Brees, or the Packers without Rodgers. Look at how big the loss of Troy Polamalu was to the Steelers success this year. There's a lot of players out there who are extremely important to their teams success and they can't win without them.

So yes, Manning was the best player on a team that won 14 games this year. His numbers compared to the rest of the QB's this year maybe aren't the best out there but definitely MVP worthy. But you look at the history of the game the year he had won't even rank in the top 10 for QB's. Why does the history of the game matter when deciding the MVP award for a single year. Manning tossing 33 TD's this year was the 32nd time it happened in NFL history. There have also been 18 4,500 yard passing season now. As far as the history of the game his season will rank as a great year, but not one of the best.

Chris Johnson, on the other hand, had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. He became only the 6th player in the history of the game to run for 2,000 yards. He set the record for the most yards from scrimmage. The Titans had next to nothing going in the passing game, outside of Johnson catching screen passes, so the opposing defense did nothing but try to stop him. You take Johnson away from that team they maybe win 3, 4 games this year.

Yes his team only won 8 games and they didn't make the playoffs and it's never easy to give the award to a guy like that but he had one of the best years in the history of the game and you cannot argue that. His team had zero passing game to speak of most of the year. He had no lead blocker and no real threat as a back-up to help spill him. The Titans defense was one of the worst in the league this year. Yet he still runs for 2,006 yards and sets the record for yards from scrimmage. Why punish a guy out of an award because his team sucks?

Manning has one of the best receivers in the game, one of the best tight ends, a very good running back, and a solid defense to pick him up from time to time. Manning had a few games where he didn't play that good this year. He had a few games where he tossed 3 INT's yet they still won. Manning has the team around him to help pick him up when he maybe isn't at his best. If Johnson was at his best his team still lost. Perfect example was week 2 vs the Texans. Johnson ran for 197 yards and had another 149 yards receiving. He scored 3 TD's (from 57 yards, 64 yards, and 91 yards!!!). Final score of the game, Texans 34, Titans 31. What more could he have done?

At the end of the day the best player on a team that won 14 games will overshadow the best player on a team that won 8 games and that's the biggest hole in my argument. So my question to all of you, outside on winning more games (Johnson was the only reason they even won 8 games), what type of numbers would Johnson have had to put up for him to win the award this year?

The Jose Canseco Effect

With the Hall of Fame class announced yesterday we saw Mark McGwire fall well short of the 75% of the votes he needed to get in. That really is no surprise to anyone. A bigger surprise was Roberto Alomar being left out in his first try. As far as second basemen are concerned his numbers are one of the best of all time. He was able to hit for a high average, surprising power at times, and very hard to keep off the base paths. He was also a premiere defensive player who was one of the smoothest glovemen I've ever seen at the position. What he did on the field should have easily granted him entry into the games elite but I think he was left out due to the generation he played in.

I have to question if some voters had steroids on the mind when casting their ballots on Alomar. Alomar has NEVER been linked to steroid use (as far as I know) and I'm not accusing him of anything. If I had to bet on it I'd say he was clean but I'm curious what the voters thought. Ten years ago I think he gets in.

It's sad to look at the players I watched growing up like this and trying to determine if they did or didn't take anything to help gain an edge but you have to do that now. Jose Canseco's books and confessions on steroid use in baseball will forever change how we view the great players during this last few decades. Canseco didn't tell us anything most baseball fans didn't already know but it wasn't something anyone wanted to talk about. We all had a good idea that players like Sosa, McGwire, and Canseco were up to something but we enjoyed seeing players hit the ball 500 feet and breaking all the big time records from the past. Even after Ken Caminiti's infamous Sports Illustrated story came out where he admitted to using steroids we acted shocked and told ourselves it was a isolated incident. It wasn't until Canseco started calling out our favorite players that we took notice.

That image of Sosa, Palmeiro, and McGwire sitting before congress wearing suits they must have bought before their steroid use (was it just me or were those suits way too tight on them) will be forever be burned into my memory. I remember watching McGwire telling us he did not want to talk about the past and thinking how bad I felt for the Maris family. I remember watching Sosa forget how to understand or speak the English language and almost being embarrassed to be a baseball fan. Then it was Palmeiro's turn and he took a stand, pointing his finger and adamantly proclaiming his innocence. Palmeiro's stance got me excited and I believed him. My thought was that Canseco pointed out a couple of obvious players and just tried to bring others down with him. Palmeiro was taking a stand for not just himself but for all the falsely accused players out there.

Then August 1st, 2005 came. Just two weeks after hitting his 500th Home Run, Palmeiro was suspended for testing positive for steroids. My faith for all players instantly went out the door and I no longer tried to fool myself into thinking it wasn't as widespread of a problem then what it really was. Palmeiro never played another game in the Major League again.

Canseco has changed how we look at players and their successes. My question is how will Canseco be viewed when it's all said and done. Will he be viewed as a hero? The guy who finally stood up and spoke out against all the players wrong doings. The guy who finally forced baseball to do something about his obvious drug problems. I do think he should be applauded for helping baseball change his drug policies and standards. No matter what you want to say he, in the end, did help clean up the game. But is he a hero? Far from.

Canseco spent his entire career cheating the game. I'm not dumb enough to think he was the first person to take steroids so I'm not one of those who say he introduced them to the game. Canseco was a good hitter with tremendous power. Early in his career he had a ton of speed and was the first ever 40-40 player. He was a below average, at best, defensive player. It's safe to say that without his ability to hit the ball a very long way his career would not have been as long as it was. Steroids made his career. He hit 462 career home runs, 38 short of the 500 milestone. After the 2001 season he went unsigned and never played again. Rumors from Canseco that he was being black-balled by baseball to ensure he'd never hit 500 home runs started to swirl. It was just a few years later "Juiced" would be published and the firestorm would begin. Now Canseco was making money again on baseball and steroids. It's one thing for a reporter write a book about this sort of thing. They never made millions cheating the game themselves like Canseco did. He gets the thought that the game was cheating him out of a milestone even though he cheated the game a long time before that.

Jose Canseco is the kind of guy that will do everything he can to keep his name in the paper or to make a buck. He has ZERO loyalty to anyone but himself and money. Since his book he has done bad reality TV series and even celebrity boxing. He has become a nothing more then a washed up steroid junkie clinging on to the little fame he may still have. While many will view him as a hero for opening baseballs eyes to it's steroid issue I'll always view him as a joke.

The Tim Tebow Debate

I'm going to start this first by saying I believe Tebow is one of the best college football players I've ever seen but not even close to one of the best quarterbacks. Tebow is the perfect quarterback for Urban Meyers spread option system and I don't think we'll ever see anybody run it better. Now, at the end of his amazing college career he's ready for the next step but several questions remain about his NFL prospects. If he an NFL QB? Where will he be drafted and by who? Should he play another position? Well I'm going to give my thoughts on all of this and then leave it to you to tell me otherwise.

Tim Tebow has publicly said that all he wants is the opportunity to play QB in the NFL. If he is given that chance and it does not appear it will work he'll move to another position. I have never been high on Tebow as an NFL QB and always thought he should switch positions.

I've seen several Florida games over the last few years and have seen plenty of Tebow. I've seen a guy who runs the option well and for the most part doesn't make mistakes. It wasn't until the Sugar Bowl I really saw Tebow open it up a bit and pick apart a defense with his arm. He made some very nice deep throws and even fit a few throws through a tight window. He showed me he is more accurate then I thought and can go over the top if need be. Tebow has done everything he's needed to do to earn the chance to play QB at the next level. I no longer think he should be viewed at any other position then QB.

People will say he has too much to work on and he's a project who might be 2 or 3 years away. If you make him a TE or a H-back how far away is he from making an impact? Probably 2 or 3 years and he might never get it. At least we all know he can actually play QB, we have no idea if he can catch, run clean routes, or even block.

He most likely won't ever be the kind of guy who is going to go out and win you a bunch of games and make the pro bowl every year. He can manage a game though and he's maybe one of the best leaders we've ever seen in the college game. He'll keep the offense on schedule and avoid making mistakes. If need be he can make some plays with his feet and has underrated arm strength to make plays down the field.

So now that I have him playing QB the question comes up who should draft him and at where in the draft. The notion that the Jaguars are going to drat him in the first round to sell more tickets is ridiculous. He's not a first round QB and the ploy won't work if he's sitting on the bench or they're losing games. So let's just end that talk right now, it's a dumb idea. Tebow is talented enough to be looked at maybe towards the end of the second round but I think he's slotted in the third round. He's going to be a game manager and you can't take a guy like that any earlier. SO I have him slotted in the third round, now the question is what team or teams should be looking at him.

Tebow should go to a younger team with young skilled players around him. He also needs to go to a team with a QB already in place so he can sit the bench for a year or two and learn. With the young skilled players they can all go through the growing pains with Tebow in practice and learn on the field. This way when Tebow is ready to take the field he has the players around him where he isn't going to have to go out there and make all the plays. He can allow his WR's and RB's to take the pressure off of him. I also think a younger coach would benefit Tebow. A guy with a lot of enthusiasm to work with Tebow. So what teams are we looking at then? Here's a few that I think would be a good fit in no particular order.

Arizona Cardinals

But what about Matt Lienart? I like Lienart and I think he can succeed in the NFL but I think his time in Arizona is done. Warner looks like he might be around for a few more years and with the way he plays there's no reason to think he can't play at a high level. Lienart is shown the door and in comes Tebow. Warner is one of the best QB's in the NFL to learn from and is always willing to help. They have one of the most dangerous young WR groups out there and an up and coming young RB. They can use a first round pick on a guy like Gresham or a second round pick on Aaron Hernandez. That gives Tebow, when he's eventually ready, 2 or 3 talented veteran WR to throw to, a RB who should be demanding respect from opposing defenses by that time, and TE he can grow with. It's a long shot but it makes sense.

Denver Broncos

McDaniels is very good coach when working with QB's. Brady had his best season ever under McDaniels system and Cassell was given nearly $70 millions after working with him. Denver has a young RB who can do a lot in the passing game as well. They'll most likely lose Marshall but given their draft position they may have a chance to land Dez Bryant who can grow with Tebow until he's ready. Orton, while nothing special, can play in the NFL and play well. He can hold the spot until Tebow is ready to go. Orton is also a game manager and Tebow can learn a lot from him about not making mistakes and being careful with the ball.

Minnesota Vikings

Who knows what Favre is going to do over the next couple of years. He could be back for a couple more years, he could retire after season, and then unretire, and then retire, OK you get it. Rodgers seemed to learn a lot sitting behind Favre so who says Tebow can't. Vikings have arguably the best RB in the league (Chris Johnson makes it an argument now) and Rice is looking like the real deal and he's really young. They have a talented TE who plays similar to Hernandez did for Florida. I think they'd need to add another threat in the passing game for this to really work. Childress is an offensive minded coach who Tebow should be able to develop under.

So there you have it. My thoughts in the Tim Tebow situation. I have wavered on this a lot over the last few years and might change my mind again. But for today, this was I thought about while in the shower. (That's so cheesy I just may need to use it all the time)