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January 17, 2010

Initial Mock Draft

I love the NFL draft. I realize it may be one of the most overrated events in sports today. Every year you have your typical players in the draft. You have your "sure things", meaning they're solid, productive players but might have already peaked. You're going to have your "work-out warriors" who put up amazing combine numbers and it never translates to NFL talent, just look at Vernon Gholston and Mike Mamula. You have your sleepers, busts, character issues and injury risks that cause guys to move up and down all over draft boards without actually playing a game for 4 months.

All the work that goes into scouting and watching film and everyone can still get it wrong on a guy. For me and a few friends we get the chance to compare ourselves to the experts, we didn't do so well last year. We have limited resources compared to the experts so it's more of a guessing game for us. It gives us something to talk and argue about which we love to do.

It also, to me, really kicks off the new season. For most fans it brings hope to the new season. It also allows the fans to get a sense on what direction their favorite team is going. Are they thinking its time to rebuild? Are they adding a key player to get them into the playoffs? Or maybe a big time weapon to get them to a Super Bowl? While it is overrated, it's still one of my favorite sports events every year.

So, after all that, lets move on to my initial mock draft. For this one I'm just going to do picks 1 through 10. This is what I think the teams should do, not will do.

Due to a random pick of number 1 (Denver) or number 2 (Jacksonville) by a friend of mine Jacksonville gets the 10th pick. Thanks Ben.

1. St. Louis Rams- Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska

I think Suh is the most dominate player in the draft this year and should be the first player taken. The Rams have a TON of needs and DT is one of them but they need a QB over anything else. The Rams should attempt to trade back 3 or 4 picks and take the best QB in the draft. This is the perfect draft to do that in. Plenty of teams would love to have the explosive Suh line up for them and they don't have to pay him like you would most first round picks due to his position. The Rams could slide back, get their QB and maybe another pick, and not have to pay him first overall pick money. If they can't get the trade they like, then take the best player in the draft.

2. Detroit Lions- Russel Okung, OT Oklahoma State

Lions did a nice job last year in the draft getting their franchise QB, a nice target for him to throw to, and a very solid safety. Now they need to get someone to protect Stafford. Okung is a beast at 6-5, 300 pounds. He's been a starter one of the better rushing teams in college since his true freshmen year. The Lions cannot wait another round or another year to try and land a top notch left tackle to protect their biggest investment. This class is deep enough in defensive lineman where they could wait till the second round to try an land a impact player. Stafford got hurt this year due to a lack of protection, the Lions better try and fix it with this pick.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma

So far this is looking like a Big 12 All-American team. Because of how dominate Suh was this year McCoy has been completley over-looked this year. He's a bit smaller then most defensive tackles (6-4, 285 pounds) but he more then makes up for that with his quickness and speed. He plays very similar to another ex-Sooner DT, Tommie Harris. Tampa had one of the worst run defenses last year and McCoy would be a great start to help re-build that defensive line. Tampa might also be a team who would look to trade up to get Suh.

4. Washington Redskins- Jimmy Clausen, QB Notre Dame

I really have no idea with this pick. With Shanahan in place he might look to land his future franchise QB with this pick. I think this might be another spot we could see a trade. Right now I have Clausen going here. I think the Redskins need to look to upgrade at the QB position. I think Campbell has not really had the best coaching in his career to grow but he has not shown any form of consistency to be counted on in the future. Clausen right now I think is the best QB prospect with Bradford right on his heels. Clausen showed a lot of toughness this year fighting back in a lot of games. He has a strong arm and showed to be more accurate this year along with better decision making. His long balls need some work though. He generally just tossed the ball up and allowed either Floyd or Tate to go up and get it.

5. Kansas City Chiefs- Eric Berry, S Tennessee

In some opinions Berry is the best player in this draft and I have a tough time arguing. He's been compared to Ed Reed for his play making ability. Berry also does a great job around the line of scrimmage stopping the run and disrupting the passing game. He's the type of player who could come in on day one and start making an impact. The Chiefs play out of the 3-4 and that would allow Berry more freedom to play near the line or be a ball hawk.

6. Seattle Seahawks- Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma

As much as I like Hasselback I think his best days are clearly behind him. He's in the twilight of his career and might just have a couple more years in him. Bradford would have been the first overall pick had he come out last year and now he sits at number 6, at least in this Draft. I would not be surprised to see him establish himself as the best QB in this draft once he starts throwing again and showing he's healthy. Until I see that I have him as the second best QB in the draft. He's extremely efficient and very accurate. He moves better then most give him credit for but still not that well. The one thing I really wanted to see from him this year was how he handles pressure. I didn't get the chance to see that due to his shoulder injury and I still see that as his biggest question mark.

7. Cleveland Browns- Rolando McClain, ILB Alabama

McClain would be a very good fit for the Browns. He's a smart player who relies on his great instincts. He's a very aggressive player and moves extremely well. He also comes from a pro-style 3-4 defense so there shouldn't be a hard transition period for him. He can come in and start from day one. McClain is a very solid tackler and can make a lot of plays in the run game. Thanks to his instincts he's not a guy who should be a liability in the passing game and could disrupt those underneath routes most teams love to use.

8. Oakland Raiders- Trent Williams, OT Oklahoma

Why won't this pick happen? Because Williams doesn't run a good 40 or jump through the roof, he's just a very good player. I actually think the Raiders will take Derrick Morgan or Taylor Mays here because of their athletic ability and that's what the Raiders do. Raiders couldn't protect their QB's and couldn't open up any holes for their running backs. Williams is a solid player and can protect well in the passing game. and is even better in the running game. He has plenty of experience where he should be able to start somewhere on the line right away.

9. Buffalo Bills- Anthony Davis, OT Rutgers

The Bills would love to see either Bradford or Clausen drop to them here. In this scenario that doesn't happen so they'll settle for one of the better tackle prospects to come out this year. Davis is very good in both the passing game and the running game and has a lot of strength. The one downfall I've heard on Davis is he can disappear at times and playing tackle in the NFL that could cost you your starting QB. Davis would be a nice addition to a team that needs to rebuild it's offensive line.

10. Jacksonville- Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma State

I'm a sucker for big time WR's and Bryant is just that. He is very physical and a terrific athlete and should provide Jacksonville with a much needed weapon in the passing game. Sims-Walker was a nice surprise this year but is can't be the only target in the passing game. Holt is at the end or very near it in his great career. Bryant is a deep threat thanks to his great size and speed and is also tough enough to go over the middle. Once inside the red zone his leaping ability makes him almost impossible to defend. Jacksonville will not only benefit in the passing game thanks to this pick but it should open up Jones-Drew more without having 8 guys in the box most of the time.

So there you have it, my initial top 10. The East/West Shrine and Senior Bowl are still to be played and should a good measuring stick for a lot of players. After that we'll have the combine, college days, and personal work-outs to help determine how the draft will turn out. I'm sure once April rolls around one or two highly regarded prospects will fall well out of the first round and just as many guys no one knows will work their way into the first round.

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